September 02 2019
Interstate migration is boosting prices at the top end of the Brisbane housing market, but it is not just million-dollar properties that are seeing a positive impact.
That is according to the latest Herron Todd White Month in Review report, which found that all price points were reaping the rewards from ‘out of towners” moving to Brisbane from the more expensive capitals of Sydney and Melbourne.
And it would seem that more of those interstate movers are now staying in Brisbane rather than being tempted to the Gold or Sunshine coasts.
“This tide of new residents heading coastward is turning somewhat as more choose to stay in Brisbane and enjoy it’s growing cosmopolitan lifestyle attractions,” the report said.
“The NIM (net interstate migration) has been steadily rising from 15,000 in 2016 to just under 24,000 in 2018. The next lot of results in 2019 are expected to be even higher.”
Property data firm CoreLogic will also reveal today that Brisbane recorded median price growth of 0.1 per cent during August.
“There has been positive growth in Brisbane and it looks like it will be positive again,” CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher said ahead of the release of the August hedonic home value index today.
It marks the second increase in values in two months, after Brisbane recorded a small rise of 0.1 per cent in July – the first monthly rise since November last year.
“Australia’s housing market recovery gathered some pace in August, with CoreLogic set to report a rise in national housing values over the month of August,” CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said.
“The first 28 days of the month has seen capital city values increase by 0.8 per cent (overall).
“If the trend holds firm over the remaining few days of the month, this will be the largest month-on-month rise in the five city aggregate index since April 2017.”
The recovery trend is being propelled by stronger conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the two capitals hardest hit by the property downturn but now proving the most responsive to recent policy decisions and improved access to credit.
Back in Brisbane, the HTW report said affordability in the local prestige market when compared to Sydney and Melbourne was an attractive prospect for people looking to make the move north, with the “price point for ultra-prestige homes in Brisbane a long way under those in Sydney”.
It is a temptation that many interstate migrators can’t refuse, the report said.
“Couple that with more work opportunities and a (hopefully) overall strengthening state economy, and it’d be fair to say that those who purchase in 2019 will look back in ten years and thank their stars they acted,” the report said.
In July, Propertyology revealed that the Sunshine State was not only the destination of choice for the majority of interstate migrators, but those that already live here were in no hurry to leave.
But it is not just Brisbane that is attracting interstate interest.
The Gold Coast has a mix of ‘out-of-towners’ who have moved from interstate for work, and people trying to escape the city.
The report noted a growing trend, particularly in the hinterland, towards buyers seeking dual living houses on acreage, and developers altering their pitch to suit that market.
But on the southern Gold Coast, new developments were driving the most interest from local, interstate and international buyers.
The Sunshine Coast also continues to be a popular destination for buyers, but the report could not pinpoint a hot spot for new residents from interstate.
“Most of our locations on the Coast seem to be having their fair share of new arrivals into their communities though it would be fair to say that suburbs along the coastline would be top of the list, the report said.
In NSW, overseas migration is expected to continue to underpin population growth in Sydney, but it is Byron Bay that has experienced a “significant increase in population” as a result of interstate and internal migration.
The hippy beach town-turned celeb haven, and its surrounds, has become a beacon for cashed up buyers wanting to escape the capital cities.
“There’s no doubt that this population growth from interstate migration has put pressure on the price of real estate in these localities,” the report said.
Earlier this year, Byron Bay leapfrogged Sydney after its median house price became the most expensive in Australia.
The report, also by Propertyology, identified Australia’s most expensive places to buy a house, and Byron Bay took out top spot.
“Byron’s median house price increased by a whopping 64 per cent over the past five calendar years, propelling it to the top of the national table,” that report said.
In Victoria, it is the outer suburbs of Melbourne that have experienced the biggest changes in population, with places like Craigieburn reporting an increase of 53.4 per cent over five years, according to HTW.
Affordable housing and new greenfield sites are driving growth in Melbourne’s western suburbs, while the revitalisation of Geelong and new local infrastructure is expected to stimulate its property market.
And in South Australia, overseas migration rather than interstate migration is driving Adelaide’s population increase, according to the report.
While Tasmania is “enjoying steady, albeit not outstanding, population growth of 1.24 per cent”, a “far cry from 2012 when the population actually shrank by 0.57 per cent”.
This is being driven by a stronger economy thanks to tourism, building and real estate activity and general confidence, population migration due to real or imagined climate change effects and overseas migration.
People are “simply relocating from Queensland and Western Australia because it is too hot”, the report said.
But that population movement is impacting on Tassie’s housing affordability, particularly in Hobart.
“Inner city Hobart is priced out of many potential purchasers means with its median house price now above Adelaide,” the report said. “The median and outer ring suburbs however still provide affordable housing and are still enjoying solid capital growth.”
Healy, S. (2019, September 2). ‘Out of towners’ boost prestige market as Brisbane values rise again. Retrieved from https://www.realestate.com.au/news/out-of-towners-boost-prestige-market-as-brisbane-values-rise-again/